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"apps.parquet": "bceb7777363beca5647905712e14e9c624560149d406690b769e44c2f847996e", "catalog.parquet": "6559fe0fc8c3c9da850a5e5bf596916cccffa4b508f681a4282922070566dd9d", "category_weekly.parquet": "ba071d07470161a0132f65cb90592cf326d6d2378d1b8793343df5a8d7e658c9", "model_weekly.parquet": "7642e9a42384122f7edc7f60204121c7b85f321a640745f75c422329c471dd95", "models.parquet": "2d88cb2c0d952537fe779206b4a8869f17cef7e7a44301f04e7959bf1cc18595", "price_weekly.parquet": "1abcf210ac2ad478ee95bee40c159326cf7b285d187c032fc62c1e4d7708d10a", "rank_threshold.parquet": "73bc4eacca9bf650d7858ecdb00ec5c445cf7c744d432dbd4c53605ffc86ad95" }, "market_tokens": { "carry_forward": 1435038123420552.0, "damped_trend": 1611962491309343.5, "market_growth": 2142320190074600.5, "recent_trend": 2142320190074600.5, "simulation": [ 196934614109462, 216207453176220, 237366412300506, 260596075022870, 286099088995585, 314097933811628, 344836861840747, 378584029003798 ] }, "method": "WORKCAST market world, baseline scenario: central path (point) and 5th-95th percentile of 20 runs (range). Standard forecasts: carry_forward: No change: the last four weeks carried forward; recent_trend: Recent trend: each company's eight-week growth rate extended (at most 15% a week); market_growth: Market growth: each company grows at the market's recent rate; damped_trend: Damped trend: Holt's method on each company's last 12 weeks, growth fading each week (at most 15% a week)", "notes": { "combined": "walk-forward blend only: not asked: language model unavailable", "llm": "language model unavailable (SystemExit: HTTP 401: {\n \"error\": {\n \"message\": \"Your API key has ex)", "timestral_llm": "not asked: language model unavailable" }, "published_hours_after_cutoff": 15.2, "segment_mix_end": { "market": { "anthropic/claude-opus-5.5-20260921": 0.04015, "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-20260731": 0.02119, "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-20260910": 0.08796, "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-20261017": 0.2176, "minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash-20261019": 0.01841, "minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash-20261019:free": 0.03709, "nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b-20260604:free": 0.02374, "openai/gpt-6-luna-20260922": 0.04798, "openai/gpt-6.1-sol-20260929": 0.01749, "stepfun/step-5-preview-20261008": 0.02628, "tencent/hy4-preview-20260827": 0.0482, "xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-flash-20260921": 0.02441, "z-ai/glm-5.3-20260816": 0.02482, "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash-20260826": 0.07541, "z-ai/glm-5.3-flashx-legal": 0.04343 }, "programming": { "anthropic/claude-opus-5.5-20260921": 0.02306, "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-20260910": 0.07763, "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-20261017": 0.20834, "meta/muse-spark-1.3-contributor-20260902": 0.04068, "minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash-20261019": 0.02135, "minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash-20261019:free": 0.04824, "nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b-20260604:free": 0.05265, "nvidia/nemotron-3.5-super-vl-20261015:free": 0.02016, "openai/gpt-6-luna-20260922": 0.03212, "other": 0.02767, "stepfun/step-5-preview-20261008": 0.06497, "tencent/hy4-preview-20260827": 0.0264, "xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-flash-20260921": 0.04861, "z-ai/glm-5.3-20260816": 0.03539, "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash-20260826": 0.06696 }, "roleplay": { "deepseek/deepseek-v3.2-20251201": 0.0265, "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-20260423": 0.09164, "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-20260731": 0.04814, "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-20260910": 0.0745, "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-20261017": 0.09822, "google/gemini-3-flash-preview-20251217": 0.02458, "google/gemini-3.8-flash-20260902": 0.02879, "google/gemma-4-31b-it-20260402": 0.03169, "openai/gpt-6-luna-20260922": 0.03049, "other": 0.05605, "tencent/hy4-preview-20260827": 0.12364, "xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-flash-20260921": 0.02873, "xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro-20260921": 0.03252, "z-ai/glm-5.2-20260616": 0.02381, "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash-20260826": 0.04774 } }, "t0": "2026-11-02", "top_spend_total_usd": { "range90": [ 364795880.2, 802117700.38 ], "simulation": 361665966.87 }, "walk_forward_weights": { "history_cutoffs": 25, "per_horizon_1_2_4_8": { "damped_trend": [ 0.8, 0.9, 0.9, 0.8 ], "workcast": [ 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2 ] } }, "weeks": [ "2026-11-02", "2026-11-09", "2026-11-16", "2026-11-23", "2026-11-30", "2026-12-07", "2026-12-14", "2026-12-21" ] }